In Search of a Trough

The U.S. economy still shrank in second quarter 2009 but at a much lower pace than was anticipated. That’s a pretty good indicator that the bottom or trough of The Great Recession may be near. Here’s the precise release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods [...]

Is Something better than Nothing?

Forty-four years ago, then President Johnson handed former President Harry Truman the nation’s first medicare card. That was July 30, 1965. This measure was one of the biggest steps taken during LBJ’s Great Society programs and undoubtedly one of the biggest steps towards eliminating poverty among the elderly since the Social Security Program. [...]

Don’t sell Tinfoil Short … yet

I was taking a break from formulating exchange rate models (yeah, I know so much excitement, so little time over the
summer) at the WSJ. Nothing grabs me quite like a market manipulation story. The headline is “Traders Blamed for Oil Spike”. So, stay with me here as I quote from that article.
The [...]

The Koolaid Kult Exposed

This week’s The Economist came with the usual stuff. I almost left it on the pile of things to read later. Last night, in a fit of insomnia, I turned to Lexington’s weekly take on U.S. politics. The title surprised and beckoned. “The Obama Cult” is hopefully one of [...]

Market Rallies as K Street Wins

I never really thought that we would see a truly “progressive” agenda coming out of the Washington, D.C. this year, but with such huge democratic majorities, I did have some thought we might get something done for the people for a change. Remember, those campaign promises last year did seem pretty liberal even [...]

All Eyes on Ben

I’ve been Fed watching again. That’s something of both an occupational hazard and a weirdish hobby for me. Usually, Fed chairs stay off the lecture circuit until they retire and write their biographies. Ben Bernanke, however, is not your usual Fed Chair and these are not usual times. I think you [...]

The Realities of Market Failure

Paul Krugman jumped further in to the health care reform debate today just as the CBO announced that the Obama Plan, billed as a cost-saver, continues to be anything but cost saving. Krugman rightly points out that in a land of third party payers, you are not going to find a free market solution. This [...]

What Exactly are they fighting to Preserve?

Here’s an interesting link from Foreign Policy. We’ve joined China, Russia, and wait for it, wait for it … that bastion of global civilization …Turkmenistan on the list of the World’s Worst Health Care Reforms.
I understand why Republicans are fighting progress on Health Care Reform because they don’t like progress of any [...]

Subprime Mortgage Myths

Yuliya Demyanyk, a senior research economist at the Cleveland Fed, has done a fascinating job debunking some of the bigger memes floating around main stream media outlets about the Subprime Mortgage Market. Her Economic Commentary piece here distills the more germane information found in the research published here. Her bottom line is that it [...]

Keyboard Cat plays off Okun’s Law

I’ve been teaching Okun’s Law in my principles level Macroeconomics courses since 1980. It’s been the policy rule of thumb since the Kennedy years on how much GDP needs to change to get a movement in the unemployment rate. Here’s the Wiki explanation which is as good as any.
In economics, [...]